The South Caucasus, located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, encompasses three nations: Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Each of these countries has a complex history and varying geopolitical interests that shape their stances on international conflicts, including the war between Israel and Hamas. This conflict, pitting Israel against the Islamist group Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist organization by several countries, has repercussions far beyond the Middle East. The countries of the Caucasus play a significant role in this dynamic, influenced by their strategic alliances and internal priorities.
I. Geopolitical position of Caucasus countries
A. Georgia
Since its independence, Georgia has maintained relatively stable relations with Israel. The two nations have collaborated in several areas, particularly in defense and security. However, Georgia is mindful of regional sensitivities and adopts a neutral stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Tbilisi avoids taking a strong position to maintain its relationships with other regional powers, such as Turkey and Iran, which hold more pro-Palestinian views.
B. Armenia
Armenia stands out in the Caucasus for its relatively pro-Hamas and anti-Israeli stance, which is influenced by geopolitics. Armenia seeks closer ties with Iran, a key supporter of Hamas, for economic and strategic reasons, given its landlocked position and conflicts with Azerbaijan. This proximity to Iran has contributed to Armenia's critical attitude toward Israel, especially when the latter supports Azerbaijan militarily. This has exacerbated tensions, reinforcing Armenian hostility toward Israel. Consequently, Yerevan has repeatedly expressed support for the Palestinian cause.
C. Azerbaijan
In contrast to Armenia, Azerbaijan has forged very close ties with Israel, especially in the fields of defense and energy. This alliance is based on mutual interests: Israel relies on Azeri oil for a significant portion of its energy supply, while Azerbaijan benefits from Israeli military technology. This cooperation has intensified, particularly with Israel supplying drones and other military equipment used by Baku. Azerbaijan has also cultivated an image of religious tolerance, which contrasts with its Armenian neighbor. Although the majority of its population is Muslim, Azerbaijan remains a secular state that has managed to maintain a pragmatic foreign policy. Baku has therefore always been discreet about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, preferring to focus on its fruitful bilateral relations with Israel while avoiding provoking tensions with its Muslim neighbors.
II. Reactions and implications of the war between Israel and Hamas
A. Political and diplomatic reactions
a) Armenia
The reactions of Caucasus countries to the conflict between Israel and Hamas are deeply influenced by their strategic alliances and national interests. Armenia, due to its ties with Iran and its resentment toward Israel, has taken a more critical stance towards the Jewish state while expressing sympathy for the Palestinian cause. This attitude is reflected in its votes at the UN, where Armenia tends to align with countries critical of Israel. On June 21, the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the recognition of the State of Palestine: "Reaffirming its commitment to international law and the principles of equality, sovereignty, and peaceful coexistence of peoples, the Republic of Armenia recognizes the State of Palestine," stated the ministry in a communiqué. The Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas welcomed Yerevan's decision, seeing it as "a significant step towards the consolidation of international recognition of the [Palestinian] people's rights and their aspiration to end [Israeli] occupation and establish an independent, fully sovereign state with Jerusalem as its capital."
b) Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan, on the other hand, remains more neutral on the international stage regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, its discreet yet strong support for Israel, particularly in the military domain, is a key element of its foreign policy. Close ties with Israel are a strategic asset for Baku, which seeks to balance its need for military support with the necessity of not alienating its Muslim allies.
B. Economic and security impact
The economic impact of the war between Israel and Hamas on the Caucasus countries is significant, especially for Azerbaijan. Trade relations with Israel, particularly in the energy sector, are crucial for Baku. Maintaining stability in these exchanges is therefore a priority for the Azeri government, especially since Azerbaijan relies on Israeli technologies to modernize its army. For Armenia, the economic fallout is less direct, but the conflict exacerbates regional tensions, particularly with Azerbaijan. Israeli military cooperation with Baku is perceived as a threat by Yerevan, which reinforces its alignment with powers hostile to Israel, such as Iran.
C. Public opinion and internal dynamics
Public opinion in the Caucasus countries is also influenced by the conflict between Israel and Hamas. In Armenia, the media and civil society are critical of Israel. This criticism is reinforced by associations with Iran and by a historical empathy for causes perceived as anti-colonial or resistant, such as that of the Palestinians. In Azerbaijan, public media highlight the benefits of the alliance with Israel, particularly in terms of security and economic development.
III. Future challenges
A. Mediation prospects
The Caucasus countries, though marginalized in major international negotiations, could consider playing a more active role in mediating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Azerbaijan, due to its relations with Israel and its ties to the Muslim world, could potentially serve as a bridge between the two sides. Armenia, despite its criticism of Israel, might also seek to play a diplomatic role, in collaboration with countries like Iran or Russia, but its capabilities are limited by its regional isolation and domestic priorities.
B. Evolution of regional alliances
The war between Israel and Hamas could redefine regional alliances in the Caucasus. Azerbaijan will likely continue to strengthen its ties with Israel, despite potential pressures from its Muslim neighbors. Armenia, on the other hand, may continue to distance itself from Israel, drawing closer to Iran and other anti-Israeli powers. This dynamic could exacerbate regional divisions and further complicate the search for lasting peace in the Caucasus.
As we have seen, the war between Israel and Hamas has significant repercussions on the countries of the Caucasus, reflecting and amplifying the region's geopolitical divisions. Armenia and Azerbaijan, in particular, find themselves on opposite sides of this divide, with diametrically opposed positions that influence not only their foreign policy but also their internal dynamics. As the conflict in the Middle East continues to cause global upheavals, the countries of the Caucasus are at a crossroads, where their future choices could have lasting impacts on regional stability and their international relations.
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