Strategic briefing: Strategic reconfiguration of the Middle East — Systemic risks and influence opportunities (2026–2030)

Executive summary

The Middle East is entering a phase of unstable stabilization.It is now one of the most advanced laboratories of global transformation: hybrid rivalries, indirect strategies, and a shift toward a multipolar order.

Three key conclusions:

• The region is not stabilizing: it is changing form

• Dominant actors now prioritize indirect influence and hybrid competition

• The current window favors actors capable of deploying agile and informed strategies

In other words: risk is becoming less visible, but more strategic

1. The illusion of stabilization

Recent signals (diplomatic de-escalation, regional agreements, reduction of certain tensions) may suggest normalization.

This is an incomplete reading.

In reality:

• Fundamental antagonisms remain intact

• Military and technological capabilities continue to grow

• Channels of confrontation are shifting toward less visible forms

We are witnessing a transition from conflictual disorder to a competitive and unstable order

2. Transformation of power dynamics

2.1. Iran: A controlled strategy of attrition

Iran is consolidating a posture based on:

• Strategic depth through non-state actors

• Asymmetric deterrence

• Strategic patience

Implicit objective: make any direct confrontation too costly for its adversaries

2.2. The Sunni bloc: pragmatism and transformation

Saudi Arabia and its partners prioritize:

• Internal stability to support economic diversification

• Flexible international relationships

• Reduced direct military engagement

Implicit objective: buy time to transform their economic model

2.3. Israel: Military superiority, strategic vulnerability

Despite technological dominance:

• Increasing exposure to hybrid threats

• Rapidly evolving regional environment

• Dependence on shifting external balances

Key insight: tactical superiority no longer guarantees strategic security

3. Great power dynamics: Discreet but structuring competition

• The United States is reducing its visible footprint while maintaining critical leverage

• China is advancing without confrontation, structuring economic dependencies

• Russia exploits gray zones to preserve its disruptive capacity

The Middle East is becoming a zone of influence without clear dominance

4. Major risks (2026–2030)

Risk 1: Unintended escalation

Accumulation of tensions + multiplication of actors = increased probability of uncontrolled incidents

Risk 2: Silent state fragmentation

Gradual weakening of certain states without visible collapse

Consequence: chronic instability zones that are difficult to manage

Risk 3: Energy and economic shocks

Any regional disruption can have immediate global impact

5. Strategic opportunities

For actors capable of anticipation:

• Access to rapidly transforming markets

• Positioning within emerging regional architectures

• Increased influence during phases of recomposition

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6. Implications for decision-makers

Three imperatives:

1. Shift from reactive to anticipatory logic

Events must no longer be endured, but preempted

2. Invest in understanding hybrid dynamics

Traditional conflicts are now secondary compared to:

• Influence strategies

• Indirect operations

• Multi-actor dynamics

3. Develop integrated analytical capabilities

Cross-analyze:

• Geopolitics

• Economics

• Security

• Perception and influence